Hi friends! Well, as far as I know I only have ONE subscriber (I am grateful for you, C!) so it should just be Hi Friend!
Anyway greetings from my cheap apartment in a smelly building in flatbush. It’s called Prospect Lefferts Gardens but that’s bogus. It’s flatbush and I’m proud of it.
This morning I had the pleasure of speaking with a few dear friends from the food business. Before I quit Free Bread I had some really cool colleagues who dealt with a lot of my horseshit and vise-versa but mostly the other way throughout the years. One friend, let’s call him Harry, is a manufacturer of high end olive oil. We spoke about the food business and what is going to happen to the world given this pandemic.
I can’t believe how much has changed over the past three weeks. First it was the cancellation of Expo West, which put many already vulnerable NYC-based participants in deep scary waters. After spending tens of thousands for their booths, insurance, giveaways, flair and travel, etc., panic is high. Most of these companies barely survive in an industry where expectations by marketing companies, distributors and retailers are great and expectations by landlords and insurance companies are greater. The city’s recent increase in the minimum wage has further thinned what was once a small profit, if any. Many food manufacturing businesses’ labor expenditures went from 19-30% within days of the wage hike. One could and should argue that pre-15$/hr profits were exploitative, earned off the backs of their employees. And that one would be correct. However our government mandates a number, not human decency, so you can’t fault business owners for following the rules.
Now the restaurants are shutting down so the distributors are fucked. And the bakeries- it’s everyone. And I am happy that I don’t have a business right now. And I am happy that I don’t feel fire in my belly and fear in my soul.
But here’s my favorite part about this. I know it’s terrible. No one is unaffected, it’s a catastrophe, ok. But let’s play who is more fucked than anyone. In my game, it’s
CORPORATE REAL ESTATE. The rent seekers. It’s a glorious story arch.
Plain and simple, businesses of all stripes burn trillions on rent every month. So as I write on this, my mom’s old mac from 2009, and everyone with office jobs is ‘working from home’, employers will hire or engage existing tech staff to build or perfect remote capability for every employee, winnowing the labor pool to the essential and rendering exclusive office space a luxury that most companies will no longer need or want to pay for. This, unfortunately, is a good opportunity for the douchebags at We Work and Knotel, etc. to drive business and increase their portfolios. That is if they survive this 21% loss in the stock market. It’s fun to think about the industries and how they rise and fall over the decades, like waves or or heartbeats.
I QUIT EVERYTHING 